Sector performance forecasts for 2026: margins, profitability and debt sustainability
Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2025 9:50 am
In 2024, a widespread decline in margins was recorded , particularly in the manufacturing sectors. In 2026, in the “baseline” scenario, a further contraction in margins is expected , with the exception of ICT, fuels and utilities, logistics and transport .
In the “worst” scenario , the new wave mom database of inflation, tensions in international trade and high interest rates cause a drastic reduction in margins for all sectors, with a particularly critical situation for the automotive, utilities and construction sectors.
In terms of profitability, the chemical and pharmaceutical, transport and fashion sectors show the best performances in 2024, while the home system and real estate services show high vulnerability. In 2026, in the “baseline” scenario, a general improvement in profitability is expected, with the exception of electrical engineering and IT, distribution and construction.
In a negative economic scenario, a reduction in cash flows is expected in 2026 and consequently a sharp deterioration in financial sustainability for the transportation, metals, utilities and construction sectors .
From the perspective of debt sustainability , in 2024, telecommunications, utilities and construction show significant exposure to the cost of debt. The sectors with the best performance appear to be chemicals and pharmaceuticals, the fashion system and metals.
In 2026, in the “baseline” scenario, the decline in interest rates reduces debt costs for all sectors and improves debt sustainability.
In the worst-case scenario , the rise in interest rates resulting from the increase in inflation leads to an increase in the cost of debt for all sectors. The simultaneous significant reduction in margins for the automotive, construction, fuel and utilities sectors leads to a very serious worsening of debt sustainability and an increase in the risk of insolvency.
In the “worst” scenario , the new wave mom database of inflation, tensions in international trade and high interest rates cause a drastic reduction in margins for all sectors, with a particularly critical situation for the automotive, utilities and construction sectors.
In terms of profitability, the chemical and pharmaceutical, transport and fashion sectors show the best performances in 2024, while the home system and real estate services show high vulnerability. In 2026, in the “baseline” scenario, a general improvement in profitability is expected, with the exception of electrical engineering and IT, distribution and construction.
In a negative economic scenario, a reduction in cash flows is expected in 2026 and consequently a sharp deterioration in financial sustainability for the transportation, metals, utilities and construction sectors .
From the perspective of debt sustainability , in 2024, telecommunications, utilities and construction show significant exposure to the cost of debt. The sectors with the best performance appear to be chemicals and pharmaceuticals, the fashion system and metals.
In 2026, in the “baseline” scenario, the decline in interest rates reduces debt costs for all sectors and improves debt sustainability.
In the worst-case scenario , the rise in interest rates resulting from the increase in inflation leads to an increase in the cost of debt for all sectors. The simultaneous significant reduction in margins for the automotive, construction, fuel and utilities sectors leads to a very serious worsening of debt sustainability and an increase in the risk of insolvency.