a number of potential risks remain
Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2025 9:46 am
shocks, both economic and geopolitical. In 2017, amid a gradual rise in oil prices and a revival in our main export destinations, Kazakhstan's economic indicators are gradually recovering.
However, based on both external and internal factors. The former include high volatility in the raw materials markets, geopolitical and trade "wars" between countries, and many others. Internal factors are primarily the raw materials focus of our economy, the weakness of the banking system, and weak domestic demand due to a significant drop in the population's solvency.
The main factor influencing the development of Kazakhstan's malaysia cell phone number list economy is still the situation with oil prices. Let's look at it in a little more detail. The oil market ended 2017 quite optimistically: world prices for “black gold” in December for the first time in 2.5 years reached $66 per barrel of Brent, overcoming the shocking fall of 2014-2015. At the same time, experts differ quite significantly in their forecasts for 2018, indicating a range of oil prices from $50 to $70 per barrel.
At the same time, despite the relative growth of oil prices, there remains a risk of a price decline, which is associated with weak demand against the backdrop of a slowdown in the economies of developing countries. In addition, the large-scale state support for American hydrocarbon production proposed by D. Trump is capable of neutralizing the effect of the agreements on limiting oil production volumes reached between OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries. D. Trump proposes to liberalize the American oil production market as much as possible. This will negatively affect world oil prices.
It is quite difficult to make forecasts, the range of possibilities and risks is too wide, but we will still try to collect together the experts’ forecasts and build our forecast for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan for the next 2-3 years (2018-2020).
The most comprehensive macro indicator is GDP growth (we will use the Agency for Statistics data on the GDP IFO by the production method). This indicator is universal and is used as a good indicator of the dynamics of development and health of the economy. Let's look at the forecasts for GDP growth.
However, based on both external and internal factors. The former include high volatility in the raw materials markets, geopolitical and trade "wars" between countries, and many others. Internal factors are primarily the raw materials focus of our economy, the weakness of the banking system, and weak domestic demand due to a significant drop in the population's solvency.
The main factor influencing the development of Kazakhstan's malaysia cell phone number list economy is still the situation with oil prices. Let's look at it in a little more detail. The oil market ended 2017 quite optimistically: world prices for “black gold” in December for the first time in 2.5 years reached $66 per barrel of Brent, overcoming the shocking fall of 2014-2015. At the same time, experts differ quite significantly in their forecasts for 2018, indicating a range of oil prices from $50 to $70 per barrel.
At the same time, despite the relative growth of oil prices, there remains a risk of a price decline, which is associated with weak demand against the backdrop of a slowdown in the economies of developing countries. In addition, the large-scale state support for American hydrocarbon production proposed by D. Trump is capable of neutralizing the effect of the agreements on limiting oil production volumes reached between OPEC countries and non-OPEC countries. D. Trump proposes to liberalize the American oil production market as much as possible. This will negatively affect world oil prices.
It is quite difficult to make forecasts, the range of possibilities and risks is too wide, but we will still try to collect together the experts’ forecasts and build our forecast for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan for the next 2-3 years (2018-2020).
The most comprehensive macro indicator is GDP growth (we will use the Agency for Statistics data on the GDP IFO by the production method). This indicator is universal and is used as a good indicator of the dynamics of development and health of the economy. Let's look at the forecasts for GDP growth.